Back in late July, we discussed how Coronavirus cases were leveling off after a “second wave” appeared to hit a number of states hard in June and early July. By late July, however, we saw the number of daily cases start to level off.
Over a month has past and we’re now in September – quickly approaching autumn – and that flattening of new cases we saw in late July is now a significant decline in new cases per day. This is great news.
The chart above highlights the entire country, and as I’ve mentioned in many of these search demand articles, some states (and cities) are faring worse than others. That said, only a few states are showing an upward trend as of late, as you can see in the chart below from NPR (red highlights 25+ daily new cases per 100k people). That’s more good news.
The trends are positive, but we’re still not out of the water yet and we probably won’t be until their’s a vaccine. You couple that with continued civil unrest in some cities and there’s still a level of concern and uncertainty… but it that affecting aesthetic demand?
What Google Trends is Telling Us
It’s been over 6 weeks since my late summer search demand update, published July 29th, and about over 3 months since my early Summer consumer demand forecast, published May 28th. In the late May article, I noticed a “bottoming out” of consumer demand for aesthetics sometime between late March through early April, followed by an uptick mid-April through the end of May. This trend continued through June despite Coronavirus cases rising.
We’re now in September, so let’s dive into the trends for August as a whole. As you can see below, the Google Trends data for August is a little inconclusive. For some of the terms, search demand is flat and for others it’s slightly declining.
August and September are traditionally two of the slowest months for aesthetic practices so that’s a factor to consider here. Still, we’re well above demand from April and May for every term.
It’s worth noting that with the scaling system Google Trends uses, once you get close to or hit “peak popularity” – a score of 100 – this tool becomes a less reliable way to gauge demand.
Therefore, we need to couple Google Trends data with Google Ads data.
*Note: Each of the screenshots below from Google Trends highlights search interest levels for several aesthetic queries over the past 180 days in the U.S. as a whole. Keep in mind that, according to Google Trends: “Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular.”
What Google Ads is Telling Us
In the May 28th Summer forecast article, I noted that the average cost-per-click (PCP) had fallen since late February and it hasn’t jumped back up to pre-Coronavirus levels. It wasn’t until the month of June before we saw the average CPC for our clients begin to slowly rise (but it’s still well below the average CPC pre-Coronavirus).
The average CPC for all of our Google Ads clients rose slightly in July, creeping up past $2 per click to $2.11. However, compared to July 2019, the average CPC is down 42%!
The average CPC for all of our Google Ads clients also rose slightly in August, up from $2.11 per click to $2.15, the highest it’s been since the week of March 9th. However, compared to August 2019, the average CPC is down 41%!
In short, Google Ads is still a bargain!
For some perspective, using the $2.15 average CPC number, with a $100 a day budget you can generate 46 clicks this August compared to only 27 last August. Assuming you averaged a 5% conversion rate, that’s the difference between generating 2.3 leads per day vs. generating 1.3 leads per day, without changing your budget!
Demand continues to stay hot but clicks remain ridiculously cheap, even in competitive markets like Beverly Hills, Orange County, and NYC!
Evaluating Our Summer Prediction After Three Months
In the Summer Prediction article from May 28th, I stated:
“demand is up and I expect it to continue to grow as we head into June and July...Barring any shift in policy regarding businesses remaining open or new stay-at-home orders, I expect aesthetic demand to continue to rise through June and into July…”
We have seen some shifts in policy due to surges in Coronavirus cases, which has even affected some plastic surgeons’ ability to use local hospitals, particularly in Texas. Still, demand continues to rise even as summer comes to a close!
We’re now over three months into our summer prediction all signs continue to remain positive for aesthetic practices as we head into autumn, at least from a consumer demand perspective.
TRBO Can Help Your Practice Capture Market Share this Summer
If you would like help with refining your marketing game plan then schedule a strategy session our growth expert Sonja Vaisz. You can also reach TRBO directly at 877-673-7096 x2 and drop us a line here.